Joe’s Weather Blog: The Ida clean-up begins + rain chances this week (MON-8/30)

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As we finish off the month…summer continues this week in KC. Overall above average temperatures are expected into the holiday weekend. We may see some sort of cool down at some point over the weekend or early next week…but it’s a warm-ish pattern overall for the area.

Ida was obviously the big story over the weekend so I have a lot of I want to show you regarding the storm. It’s continuing to weaken but will spread a lot of rain along it’s path all the way through New England this week.

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Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds and warm with highs well into the 80s. There may some isolated storms after the middle of the afternoon into early this evening.

Tonight: There are likely storms for northern MO which will try and turn southeast. How far south the get in the wee hours of the morning remain to be seen. Lows in the upper 60s.

Tomorrow: Any storms that move in will move out in the morning. This may help keep us a bit cooler tomorrow. Highs in the low>mid 80s (if that)

Wednesday: Variable clouds with a 20% chance of a storm. Highs in the mid 80s

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Discussion:

Let’s start with Ida because I have a lot of stuff I want to show you…

1st off…what a forecast. Any politician or whomever that says we didn’t know it was coming…we didn’t know it would be this bad…no one said it would be like this blah…blah…blah is lying…not telling the truth or covering their you know whats. There were some track wobbles after landfall to a very minor extent and that may have heightened some damage in eastern LA specifically but still this was a great overall forecast.

Almost everything that Ida did was more or less expected. 1st the path. Here is a look at all the NHC forecasts for Ida…I’d say getting it to within 50 miles from days out is pretty dang good

Every NHC forecast for Ida.

One might say they’re pretty good at their jobs. pic.twitter.com/aHhVvw2lHr

— Sam Lillo (@splillo) August 29, 2021

A remarkable forecast aided by computer models that didn’t waver around too much from almost the beginning.

It was a fascinating storm to watch as it came ashore strengthening as it was moving onshore and even through the wet lands of southern LA.

A close up of Hurricane #Ida‘s eye over the last 2 hours from #GOES16. The imagery shows that Ida’s eye is just to the south of Grand Isle and Port Fourchon. #LAwx pic.twitter.com/I3xy3xIO3H

— Chris Slocum (@CSlocumWX) August 29, 2021

10 hours of 1-minute Mesoscale Sector #GOES16/#GOESeast Infrared (& visible, after sunrise) images of Category 4 Hurricane #Ida as it approached the coast of Louisiana: https://t.co/tyZwagU5Eh #LAwx #MSwx (loop will be updated after landfall…) pic.twitter.com/dH1k6vhn9t

— Scott Bachmeier (@CIMSS_Satellite) August 29, 2021

Ida was a strong category 4 hurricane at landfall. Katrina was a weakening category 3 at landfall but Katrina was over the Gulf waters for a longer period of time and was quite a bit larger helping to create bigger storm surge compared to Ida…still though from a pressure standpoint…Ida was one of the strongest to come ashore in LA in their hurricane history.

5 strongest Louisiana hurricanes by central pressure are:

Katrina (2005) – 920 hPa
Last Island (1856) – 934 hPa
Rita (2005) – 937 hPa
Laura (2020) – 939 hPa
New Orleans (1915) – 944 hPa#Hurricane #Ida‘s current central pressure is 933 hPa as its northern eyewall comes onshore. pic.twitter.com/ahFokbAL7I

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) August 29, 2021

Ida took a bit of time to hit the strong intensification phase that we thought was coming…but once it started to get going on Saturday night…it went big…peaking at around 150 MPH.

Official landfall… pic.twitter.com/R3PeRzeYeg

— Mike’s Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) August 29, 2021

This is what it was like as hurricane hunters were flying around the storm’s center.

Stunning video taken from inside the eye of #Ida this morning by the NESDIS Ocean Winds Research team during a flight on the @NOAA_HurrHunter P3 aircraft @NOAASatellites pic.twitter.com/sjt970Yeiq

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 29, 2021

Another view from the eye of the storm…

The crew got the blades turning a little early to be able to make two passes through the eye as Hurricane #Ida made landfall. Here’s what we saw: pic.twitter.com/BrwKwFVQiB

— Hurricane Hunters (@53rdWRS) August 29, 2021

So Ida had stronger winds than Katrina…and a lower air pressure than Katrina at landfall but Katrina actually had more energy spread out and destructive that Ida had.

A Katrina and Ida landfall comparison showing approximately the same-sized region and using the same color scale for infrared imagery. Katrina’s image is generated from the NASA MERGIR dataset; Ida’s image comes from a GOES-16 Band 13 CONUS scan. pic.twitter.com/56ZmsqiPed

— Dr. Kim Wood (@DrKimWood) August 29, 2021

#Ida‘s intensification continues with peak winds near 150 mph. Storm is more compact than Katrina with less than half the Integrated kinetic energy 45 TJ compared to > 100 for Katrina. Analysis based on measurements from @NOAA_HurrHunter, @53rdWRS, @TTUHRT and @UFwind. pic.twitter.com/jcZySrNv1W

— RMS HWind (@hwind) August 29, 2021

Regardless…Ida packed a punch…and it will take a long time for LA to recover.

Want to provide more context on Port Fourchon Ship ob. in #Ida‘s eyewall yesterday. It looks like the 149 MPH reading was an *instantaneous* wind & not a sustained wind. Compare device manual to console photo of the observation.

Credit goes to @v0rticity for excellent sleuthing. https://t.co/XJ6FbNiX0s pic.twitter.com/lEwilpWd2R

— Philippe Papin (@pppapin) August 30, 2021

The above shows winds near 150 MPH in a gust (once you dive into the data more than the image shows) plus another stronger gust of 172 MPH aboard this ship. Now there are some trivial questions about how high up the instrumentation was etc…but you get the point.

Here is some additional data showing the stronger winds.

Updated peak wind gusts in SE Louisiana from #Ida as of early Monday morning. Note that right turn in the track b/t Dulac & Galliano.

Prior to that, storm was on a trajectory that would have taken it very close to Baton Rouge. Instead, that right turn made it much worse in NOLA. pic.twitter.com/dILOowA598

— Steve Caparotta, Ph.D. (@SteveWAFB) August 30, 2021

Tacking on…

This is my final wind gust list for tonight for Hurricane #Ida.

Port Fourchon, LA: 153 mph
Dulac: 138
Grand Isle: 136
Southwest Pass: 128*
Galliano: 122
Bottle Bayou: 119*
Mississippi Canyon: 117*
West Delta, LA: 112

*Elev

LIVE BLOG: https://t.co/uXXx7dr8sE pic.twitter.com/S8Mi22SKiv

— Jesse Ferrell (AccuWeather) (@WeatherMatrix) August 30, 2021

Many areas of SE LA were hit badly…New Orleans took a big hit as well…this is remarkable.

Y’all … I don’t even know what wizardry this is but it’s terrifying. #HurricaneIda

🎥 Scott Alexander in the New Orleans CBD pic.twitter.com/Yy51B2ECn3

— Jeff Nowak (@Jeff_Nowak) August 29, 2021

In a sense though…it’s proximity to New Orleans as it made a northwards turn after slowing to a crawl in S LA was interesting…this prolonged the effects of the storm in E LA.

Not too many Cat. 3+ #hurricanes have taken a northward path to the west of #NOLA, as #Ida is about to do this evening.

Looks like the last one to do that was in 1915, per NOAA’s database. pic.twitter.com/rcTFZY1LHy

— Jonathan Erdman (@wxjerdman) August 29, 2021

Because of all the wet land and marshland of S LA…when Ida did make “landfall” SW of Grand Island near Dulac…it didn’t weaken for about 6 more hours really. It was organizing till the end…and in further research may be upgraded to a category 5 storm in the end.

I count 4 mesovortices rotating around the outer portion of #Ida‘s eye, evident in the low cloud field. And the eye is now *completely over land*! I don’t think I’ve seen this before with a storm over land. #GOES16 pic.twitter.com/34i1ovISZp

— Dan Lindsey (@DanLindsey77) August 29, 2021

The winds and surge though were impressive at landfall as you might imagine

With the help of wxtwitter, I found some footage of what looks like Grand Isle, LA experiencing Ida’s inner eyewall. It sounds terrifying.
You can view the whole live video here: https://t.co/zNPF5ZLUpe pic.twitter.com/UdVvngd5xe

— Tiffany Fortier (@tfortier_wx) August 29, 2021

Sound up for this next video showing what it’s like to go through something like this…

MUST WATCH: This is just absolutely insane and terrifying video from Port Fourchon, LA. Jeremey DiBenedetto shot this video and says “All I can say is WOW!!! The two things in life you NEVER underestimate, God and Mother Nature!!”@WKRG @NWSMobile pic.twitter.com/xAKrfXbscN

— WKRG Caroline Carithers (@wkrgcaroline) August 29, 2021

I haven’t seen details on how big the surge was…but this gets the point home…

The rapid onset of storm surge from #HurricaneIda could be seen this morning from Grand Isle, Louisiana. If you’re being told to shelter in place during a storm by local authorities, don’t risk it, you could be overtaken quickly in a matter of hours as shown here. pic.twitter.com/oJ5WXYxNKM

— IntelWalrus (@IntelWalrus) August 29, 2021

Before and after security camera footage from Fire Station #12 in Delacroix within a 1 hour time span. #idahurricane #HurricaneIda #Hurricane #Category4 pic.twitter.com/9PL8V9KySA

— St. Bernard Parish (@StBGov) August 29, 2021

Obviously LA and to some extent MS have the main power issues this morning. via poweroutage.us

The power for some folks will be out for weeks…and the city of New Orleans has some real rough days ahead as all the transmission lines have fallen coming into the city.

One of the reasons New Orleans is without power. This transmission line that runs across the Mississippi River from Avondale to Harahan had a collapsed tower. Lines are literally in the River. #hurricanida #lawx #neworleans pic.twitter.com/tYzjXkkaAl

— Brian Emfinger (@brianemfinger) August 30, 2021

Not a good situation there…

Entergy having “catastrophic transmission” damage after #HurricaneIda is significant. Also not a quick fix. Transmission lines are the gigantic structures you see. The backbone of the power grid, transporting electricity from plants to cities. Without it, power doesn’t move. pic.twitter.com/DumGvt2xln

— Tyler Mauldin (@TyTheWeatherGuy) August 30, 2021

It was quite the storm…and likely the name Ida will be retired as well. The colored areas below are batches of satellite detected lightning.

Hurricane #Ida over the past 48 h (#GLM flash extent density over #ABI GeoColor), latest imagery is available here https://t.co/ytba2HJj98 pic.twitter.com/6zlKV0lwfu

— Scott Rudlosky (@goesglm) August 30, 2021

OK…let me move on because I can write about this all morning.

Our weather in brief. Questionable pop-ups this evening…most stay dry. Then there is a chance of something coming southwards or southeastwards overnight into Tuesday and affecting the area tomorrow morning. Again not a slam dunk on that situation. IF it does blow through the region tomorrow…we may stay in the 70s all day long…but again iffy on that one.

Aside from that a warmer pattern settles into the area for the rest of the week.

OK that’s it for today…

The feature photo comes from Kevin Walker via @swillis524 on twitter

From east of Sedalia

Joe

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