Joe’s Weather Blog: A typical summer week as we heat up again (MON-8/16)

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I hope you enjoyed a good weekend. It was really delightful and probably one of the best summer weekends we’ve had in weeks. No rain…lower dew points…and mostly sunny conditions. Also of note was the lack of smoke in the atmosphere. That’s the first time in weeks that there hasn’t been any noticeable smoke running around out there. It was nice to see the blue skies.

This week, as schools start to really open up again, it will feel like summer. Temperatures will gradually inch up a degree or two as the dew points creep up as well. It won’t be crazy hot or crazy humid but it will be muggier.

Rain chances aren’t high for any one spot into Thursday, but some scattered or isolated storms are not out of the question at any time…especially in the afternoon hours.

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and seasonable with highs in the mid to upper 80s

Tonight: Fair and pleasant with lows in the upper 60s

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy with a few isolated storms possible. Highs in the upper 80s

Wednesday: About the same.

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Discussion:

It really was a nice weekend. We’re halfway done with the month and overall this is month that has trended milder and wetter so far. We’re 1° above average for the month so far.

Some areas are still lacking in the rain situation…but most caught up and then some with the downpours last Thursday. There are areas though in northern MO that didn’t get much at all these last couple of weeks are are a bit dry in the topsoil at least. Over the past couple of weeks this shows the % normal. It doesn’t get into the finer details of the deluge in parts of JOCO KS last week either.

But you get the idea at least.

Also of note in the past few months…

Notice the monsoon pattern has been quite beneficial in the SW part of the country as well. AZ is really a standout for rain over the past 6+ weeks.

One area that actually could use more moisture is up towards parts of IA…perhaps not 10″ in one day but more sustained moisture this winter. Look at these deficits since last year.

Going back to Jan 2020, the precipitation deficit is even more astounding for portions of northern Iowa. Looks like Ames to Boone area nearly 20″ below normal from Jan 1, 2020 to August 15, 2021. #iawx https://t.co/qiclD2rEfT pic.twitter.com/qc2gW9YD5x

— NWS Des Moines (@NWSDesMoines) August 16, 2021

I alluded to the smoke improvement in the skies around the region…not sure how long it will last..but it’s noticeably better now for sure. Although I may be seeing a bit of it returning this morning. I got this view picture from MT yesterday where things are getting worse again

@fox4wx These photos were taken three days apart (first one tonight, second one Thursday) from my deck in Big Sky, MT. The smoke here is getting progressively worse every day. It’s unbelievable. pic.twitter.com/ngMXBQK4gi

— Bittah Desperado (@DarrenBradleyVP) August 16, 2021

It’s all over the place again out west. from yesterday

Get the feeling our 2-3 day break from the nasty smoke will be ending soon rather that later. JL https://t.co/CT88BE0UB6

— Fox 4 Weather KC (@fox4wx) August 16, 2021

It’s probably just a matter of time before we get more of it.

Onwards to the tropics. The main story is Fred which will come ashore in the FL Panhandle today as a pretty decent tropical storm.

It’s actually showing signs of some organization on radar this morning.

I won’t be shocked…just looking at radar if this becomes a minimal hurricane before landfall.

The main issue though will be the rain…and it’s likely because of topography that the bigger rains could actually be in the western Carolinas, quite a distance from the landfall point of the storm.

Behind this is Grace. Which this morning is down to a tropical storm likely because of interaction with the land down there.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty though when it comes to Grace…especially as it comes into the southern Gulf area. Current forecasts call for an eventual slow strengthening of this as it moves westwards.

We’re coming into the heart of hurricane season for the US in general…

~90% of all landfalling major #hurricanes in the US occur between August 20th and September 20th. The next month is showtime in the Atlantic basin. Let’s hope those type of storms don’t make an appearance on our shore. #tropics

— Michael Palmer (@MPalmerTWC) August 16, 2021

Some speculation out there that after an active next couple of weeks that the early part of September may be somewhat less active…we’ll see.

For the KC region…our next GOOD chance of widespread rain will wait till probably Friday into perhaps Saturday AM at this point. There will be a trough (wind shift) coming eastwards although the data this morning shows little if any cooling behind this feature for the weekend. It should be enough, given dew points in the 70s ahead of it to create some widespread rain in the region.

More on that as we get closer. Next blog update will be Wednesday.

The feature photo is from Ken Martin

Joe

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