Joe’s Weather Blog: 2 more days of heat…then it breaks (WED-8/11)

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — It’s a windy start to the day in the area with gusts to 25 mph. That should more or less continue into the afternoon as stronger south winds continue to mix up the air and sending temperatures into the mid-to-upper 90s. Dew points will be in the 70s, so the heat index values should easily be above 105° during the afternoon.

A few storms are possible tonight up north, but in time a cold front will sag southwards later tomorrow into Friday morning. That should break the back of the heat heading into the weekend and also bring us a better chance of some widespread rain in the area.

Yesterday morning’s storms were welcome, with amounts ranging from about 1/10 to 1 inch or so, but after all the heat, more can be handled.


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Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny, windy and humid with highs in the 95-98° range. Gusts to 25 MPH and heat indices above 105°

Tonight: There might be an early morning storm, especially up north. The only way we get into anything is if something wanders southwards or some sort of outflow comes into the area. Rain chance is about 20-30% for KC.

Tomorrow: About the same as today

Friday: Rain likely…with cooler temperatures. Highs closer to 85°.

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Discussion:

The summer weather continues. Yesterday the rain was certainly welcome…but once it ended and we broke out into sunshine…it got hot fast. We still hit the lower 90s with a heat index just shy of 105°

Today will be hotter and windier overall.

The morning surface map shows a front to the NW of the region. Notice the air behind the front. The numbers in red are the temperatures with the dew points in green.

The front doesn’t have much of a push. The winds behind it are only around 5 MPH or so…so the way it gets south is repeated clusters of storms pushing it southwards. It will take awhile. Ahead of the front decently strong south winds will continue to keep us hot and humid until the front pushes through.

The front overnight will remain north of here…at 1AM tomorrow…

There will be a ton of instability building across the MO River Valley today. Heat and humidity will do that. So there very well may be some stronger storms up there closer to the front’s convergence (where the air masses are butting up against each other).

It’s possible there could be an outflow boundary or two thrown out of these storms that wanders southwards…and that overnight could create some new storms somewhere out there. It’s certainly not set in stone that this happens but strange things can happen with the heat that will be in the region for the next couple of days.

By far the best chance of storms/rain will be later tomorrow night into Friday. That front will be closer to KC by then…and that could set the atmosphere more into motion. I remain bullish on the chances of rain with this. Experience says that when fronts break significant heat in the area…it rains. Sometimes it rains a lot too. I’m not confident in the “a lot” part…but it wouldn’t shock be if some areas get 1-3″ of rain from this set-up. That chance is better NE of the Metro…but something to watch.

The best rain chance on Friday is through early afternoon…then the chances should wind down as the afternoon moves along.

There are still some conflicts in the data regarding how cool it will get on Friday. The EURO has been the most aggressive with the cooler weather compared to the GFS this week (for Friday) and the overnight runs continue that thinking. I favor the cooler solutions with the rainier solution. You can see the difference below. Use the slider bar and go right for the EURO and left for the GFS.

My thought is that the cooler weather will continue into the weekend as well…withhopefully more comfortable mornings too.

Now the next issue is will there be rain over the weekend? The issue is how far south does the cooler air push…and will the front belly up closer to the KC Metro area. I am wondering a bit more about that. I think we’re going to OK…I think the front should be far enough south to get the rain to stay farther south…but areas in SE KS and S MO may have more rain issues even on Saturday morning especially.

After that I like the trends into early next week before we start to warm back up again.

Next are various other tidbits…

today at 1:20 this afternoon you may hear your phones send you an alert and emergency text. This is a test of the emergency alert system through your cell phones. IF you’ve gotten previous amber alerts or severe weather warnings through WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts), different from your weather apps, you’ll get this tone/alert, IF you have WEA “enabled” on your phone. Most modern cell phones have this…check your settings and perhaps your advanced settings. It’s tucked in there and not readily found on many phones.
Tropical storm Fred has formed near the Caribbean Islands.

Likely to remain a tropical storm for it’s journey towards Florida over the weekend. The concern about this is that there is a lot of potential energy in the warm water to be tapped into on it’s journey once it gets away from the Islands. So it needs to be watched a bot more closely. There is a fair amount of shear it will have to fight through as well

Interesting that Fred is the 6th earliest 6th Atlantic named-storm since 1966. And if asked to predict exactly what Fred will do, I find myself at sixes and sevens. https://t.co/rACY0lGTq9 https://t.co/So9RAC3J9E

— Bob Henson (@bhensonweather) August 11, 2021

Oh and 16 years ago this weekend…Wilma hit that southern FL. See what I did there?

3. I thought this was interesting…

Researchers in Hong Kong developed a global lightning climatology from 2010-2020.

The 11 year record reveals many interesting and perhaps new facets of t-storms 🌩

Lightning climatology map is really neat. And, the data is all open source 👍https://t.co/ZF4UTe6xMo pic.twitter.com/5qv6Nis2gy

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) August 11, 2021

4. Yesterday, the 10th, was the anniversary of this…

Animated radar loop and the Convective Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center showing the line of thunderstorms gaining strength and racing across Iowa during the late morning hours. #August2020Derecho pic.twitter.com/2Yfl3AcL71

— NWS Des Moines (@NWSDesMoines) August 10, 2021

This ended up as an 11 BILLION dollar disaster! Incredible…and so many trees lost in some areas up there including Cedar Rapids.

1 year ago, 8 Midwest states experienced the costliest thunderstorm event in recorded history. #August2020Derecho
-$11 Billion in damage
-20% of Iowa crops lost including 3.5 million acres corn
-4.4 million trees lost
-770 miles of damage in 14 hrs
-60 to 140 mph winds
-4 Deaths pic.twitter.com/LCMmbq68FA

— Jacqui Jeras (@JacquiJerasTV) August 10, 2021

The damage swath from #August2020Derecho. The blue is 60 mph or greater, which covered at least 90,000 square miles.
Note: Minnesota’s total area is 86,935 square miles. 🤔https://t.co/FbPGlzu8Bh pic.twitter.com/gNXzitgULR

— NWS Des Moines (@NWSDesMoines) August 10, 2021

5. The Dixie fire out in CA…is a monster. 2nd biggest single fire in CA history Last years August fire complex was the biggest at over 1 million acres..

#DixieFire, as it approaches half a million acres (nearly 800 sq mi) in size, has unfortunately joined rapidly growing list of CA wildfires that have burned more than 1,000 structures (half of which were homes)–& will likely continue to grow substantially in coming days/weeks. https://t.co/YZEBHmb34y

— Daniel Swain (@Weather_West) August 11, 2021

OK that’s it for today…another update tomorrow morning.

The feature photo is from Sandy Simons up towards Liberty. Her home was struck by lightning yesterday.

“Struck by lightening during that wicked storm! Smelled smoke so called fire department. The plaster on my ceilings came off over the nail heads. They said the surge in electricity heated the nails up like a “microwave””

Joe

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