TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three areas in the Atlantic basin as we head into what’s typically the most active part of hurricane season with “no signs of slowing,” according to federal weather officials.
While things have been relatively quiet since Hurricane Elsa, the NHC is now keeping an eye on three areas of potential development in the Atlantic.
The first is a small and weak are of low pressure passing near the Cabo Verde Islands with some thunderstorm and shower activity. According to the NHC, significant development is not likely because of unfavorable environmental conditions. The area has been given a low, near zero percent chance of developing.
The second area being monitored is a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic that’s producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will become more favorable for development over the weekend and into early next week as the disturbance moves near the Lesser Antilles, and the wave has been given a low 20 percent chance of formation through five days.
Another tropical wave is forecast to emerge off of the west coast of Africa by Thursday night. Slow development of the disturbance is possible over the next several days. The NHC has given it a 30 percent chance of development through the next five days.
The tick up in tropical activity is expected this time of year as we move closer to Sept. 10, which is the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. On average, more than 60 percent of all tropical systems form in August or September.
In its mid-season update released Wednesday, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration said an above-average hurricane season is still expected thanks to atmospheric and oceanic conditions staying conducive as we head into those active months.
The updated outlook, which includes the five named storms we’ve seen so far, calls for 15 to 21 named storms. That prediction includes seven to 10 hurricanes, three to five of which could reach major hurricane strength of 111 mph or higher.
“A mix of competing oceanic and atmospheric conditions generally favor above-average activity for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season, including the potential return of La Nina in the months ahead,” NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Matthew Rosencrans said.